Regional Spotlight: Austin, Texas
The Silicon Hills are on a takeoff trajectory. When you think of Texas, the capital city of Austin probably isn’t the first metro area that springs to mind. Although Austin’s housing market would certainly claim top honors in many other states, it is often overshadowed by headline boomers such as Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Houston. That is likely to change in 2020. Austin’s real estate market is just taking off, thanks to reliable and steady appreciation, ongoing population growth and an extremely attractive, talented employment sector. “Austin enjoys a strong and diverse economy somewhat dominated by high-tech,” observed Mashvisor analysts in a 2020 report on the Texas city. Austin is home to operations centers belonging to Apple, Amazon, PayPal, eBay, Facebook, Samsung Group, Nintendo, 3M and many others. Not surprisingly, this high-tech cluster contributes to the nickname, Silicon Hills, and has attracted a great deal of highly skilled, highly educated talent to the area. According to the Austin Chamber of Commerce, the metro’s population topped 2 million fiveyears ago, due largely to its ability to attract migrating talent. Among the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, Austin ranked third based on net migration as a percent of total population in 2018. Nearly 7% of the population lived somewhere else just one year earlier. Not surprisingly, this has created an ideal real estate market for investors using both short- and longer-term strategies, though the long-term plays are likely to require less effort and be more rewarding in today’s market. “Austin is an excellent market for real estate investors who have an investing strategy that thrives with consistent growth,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of market economics at Auction.com. “Home sales have increased annually an average of 6% [over the last eight years of the housing recovery] and home prices have increased annually an average of 7.3%. Blomquist noted that Austin’s real estate market “favors the buy-and-hold investor who purchases rentals” because of its reliable growth pattern: “The cash flow won’t be as eye-popping as in other parts of the country, but that buy-and-hold investor should be able to see solid equity growth over the longer term.” Marco Santarelli of Norada Real Estate Investments agreed. “Austin has a record of being one of the best long-term real estate investments in the U.S. over the last 10 years,” he said. “Investors who got involved early entered the market ahead of an influx of interest and capital. If the appreciation rate in Austin remains steady, the annualized appreciation rate will be over 10%. This could trigger additional strong interest in Austin’s real estate investment opportunities.” Best in the U.S. Austin tops myriad Top 10 and “Best of” lists when it comes to the metro-area housing market. And, like its appreciation rate, high performance is nothing new. U.S. News & World Report has named Austin “#1 Best Place to Live” for three years in a row . CompTIA labeled Austin the 2019 “Top City for Technology,” beating out Raleigh, North Carolina; San Jose, California; Seattle, Washington; and San Francisco, California. Austin ranked third on the list the year prior. From a lifestyle perspective, Austin also performs well. The city ranked in the top 10 for foodies (WalletHub), as a “top city” by Travel & Leisure and as “the best city in America” by Forbes. When asked to comment on the city’s economy and housing market forecasts for 2020, a Pulsenomics/Zillow survey of more than 100 economists and industry experts predicted en masse that Austin’s market growth would “outperform the national average” and is “the most likely [city] in the country to do so.” If those analysts are correct, then 2020 would be the 10th consecutive year that sales volume and median price “topped the previous year’s numbers,” observed the Austin Board of Realtors (ABR). This type of growth is often difficult to maintain in high-population metro areas, but Austin’s unique population, employment characteristics and incoming population create the ideal growth medium for 2020. “I don’t see anything getting in the way of another robust year for [the Austin] economy,” said Eldon Rude, principal of 360° Real Estate Analytics. ABR president Romeo Manzanilla agreed. “Austin’s unprecedented population growth during the past decade has heavily impacted the real estate market. That exponential growth has put enormous pressure on the market…[and] as we look forward to this year, the market is not showing signs of slowing down anytime soon,” Manzanilla said. Beware of Rose-Colored Glasses Despite all the positive expert commentary on the Austin real estate market, investors should take all predictions with a healthy grain of salt. After all, 2020 will mark a decade’s worth of expansion in Austin’s housing market, and the national economy is arguably teetering on the edge of a downturn. However, with the right strategies in place, investors can still invest in Austin despite Local Market Monitor’s president Ingo Winzer’s warning of as much as a 25% overvaluation in some parts of the metro area. “Austin home prices increased briskly in the past decade, to the point where the market is now overpriced,” Winzer said. “This will create problems down the line, but right now the local economy is still doing well and home prices have been up steadily.” Winzer’s numbers put annual appreciation around 6%, which means he said that demand is good for both single-family homes and rentals. He recommended that cautious investors “subdivide properties or put their money into apartments as a safer bet [than single-family residences].” Austin benefits from its relative affordability when compared to other tech-driven markets like Seattle, San Francisco and Boston. Likely, the problems to which Winzer refers will hold off aslong as the comparison remains favorable. According to Yardi Matrix associate editor Anca Gagiuc, the city has a plan to keep affordable units in its active inventory. “The city has approved a plan to build 60,000 affordable units by 2027,” she said. “In October [2019], 3,163 units in 16 affordable communities were underway in the metro.” Yardi and Moody’s Analytics Data indicate that both
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